Ukrainian Military Expert Assesses Russian Offensive Failures

In a recent analysis, Olexander Kowalenko, a prominent Ukrainian military analyst, expressed his views on the current state of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, particularly in light of recent comments made by the President of the United States regarding Ukraine's territorial ambitions. Kowalenko noted that these statements from the U.S. leader might reflect a shift in perspective, as he perceives a growing understanding that Russia is unlikely to engage in meaningful peace negotiations.

Kowalenko emphasized that the Russian military's objectives during its extensive summer offensive have largely not been achieved. Key targets, including major cities such as Pokrowsk, Kostjantyniwka, Siwersk, Liman, and Kupjansk, were not captured or encircled as planned. While there have been minor advances in specific areas, these do not constitute a strategic encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

As winter approaches, the Russian military aims to establish control over these cities, which could become increasingly challenging as adverse weather conditions complicate mobility across the Donbass region. Kowalenko pointed out that the tactics employed by Russian forces have evolved, now relying more on infantry and smaller units rather than large armored columns, which were characteristic of earlier phases of the conflict.

Moreover, Kowalenko highlighted a significant increase in Russian casualties, estimating that of approximately 30,000 total losses, between 15,000 and 20,000 may be fatalities, a stark contrast to earlier battles where most losses were injuries. This rising number of casualties has compelled Russia to bolster its ranks with volunteers and conscripts, despite the challenges posed by a smaller Ukrainian population.

Looking ahead, Kowalenko forecasted a reduction in the pace of territorial gains for Russian forces, projecting that they might only capture an estimated 3,500 to 4,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land annually. He attributed this slowdown to the increased effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses and the high cost of Russian offensives.

Additionally, Kowalenko discussed the role of external support, particularly from nations like North Korea and China, in sustaining Russian military operations. He noted that advancements in drone technology, primarily sourced from these countries, have significantly bolstered Russian military capabilities, allowing for the deployment of thousands of drones each month.

Given the evolving landscape of the conflict, Kowalenko underscored the necessity for Ukraine to maintain its defensive strategies while adapting to the changing dynamics on the battlefield. He indicated that continued international support and effective military strategies will be crucial for Ukraine to withstand the ongoing aggression from Russian forces.