UN Weather Agency Predicts More Global Temperature Records Ahead

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a new report indicating that the next five years are likely to witness unprecedented global temperature records. The organization states that surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius mark in global warming is becoming increasingly probable.

Currently, the year 2024 is noted as having the highest recorded average temperature to date. The WMO's projections for the period from 2025 to 2029 suggest an 80% likelihood that this record will be broken at least once. Furthermore, the average global temperature is expected to exceed the 1.5-degree threshold by 2029, according to climate models developed by the UK Met Office and 15 other institutions, including the German Weather Service.

Concerns Over Climate Targets

During the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, it was decided to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, achieving this target now seems increasingly unattainable. The WMO has indicated that this critical threshold may have been crossed in 2024. Officially, the target will only be considered missed if it is surpassed for an extended period.

The organization warns that even a slight increase in temperature contributes significantly to severe weather phenomena, such as heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, ice melt, warmer oceans, and rising sea levels. Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, highlighted that the recent report shows no signs of relief regarding climate change in the coming years. She emphasized that the repercussions on economies, daily life, ecosystems, and the planet will become increasingly severe.

Regional Climate Variations

The WMO has forecasted that several regions, including Northern Europe and South Asia, will experience above-average seasonal rainfall in the next few years. In contrast, the Amazon rainforest is expected to face drier conditions. Notably, the Arctic region is predicted to warm more than three times faster than the global average during winter months.

To effectively keep global warming below the 1.5-degree mark, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required. The WMO stresses that emissions need to decrease by at least 43% by the year 2030. Additionally, removing substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change.