Debate on Undersea Cable Incidents Raises Concerns Over Safety and Security

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in incidents involving damage to undersea cables and gas pipelines, specifically linked to vessels traveling to or from Russia. A review conducted by a Swedish news outlet highlighted an unusual frequency of such occurrences, with four significant incidents reported over the past two years.

For example, on November 17-18, 2024, a cable connecting Finland and Germany, as well as another linking Sweden and Lithuania, sustained damage. A vessel named Yi Peng 3, flagged from China, was implicated in these incidents. While Chinese authorities claimed that the damage was accidental, Swedish regulators investigated the possibility of sabotage. However, a recent statement from the Swedish Accident Investigation Authority indicated that there is insufficient evidence to definitively categorize the events as either accidents or deliberate acts of sabotage.

Additionally, the Swedish legal system has closed investigations into sabotage allegations against the Malta-flagged vessel Vezhen, which reportedly damaged a data cable between Latvia and Gotland on January 26. The prosecutor concluded that this incident, too, was accidental.

Professor Hans Liwång, a researcher in defense systems and marine technologies at the Swedish Defence University and KTH, expressed concerns regarding the ongoing discourse surrounding these cable incidents. He noted that the real issues stem not from the lack of clarity about what transpired but rather from influential figures asserting certainty in their conclusions. Such statements can lead to public suspicion about whether decision-makers possess information that the general public does not, or whether they are making judgments based on flimsy evidence.

Liwanag emphasized that he cannot determine whether the five cable incidents were due to sabotage or accidents. He acknowledged that it might be impossible to ascertain the true causes, suggesting that society may need to accept this uncertainty. He pointed out that while these incidents affect critical sectors, they do not constitute a severe blow to the state.

In response to these concerns, the Swedish government has assigned new tasks to multiple agencies, including the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, the Swedish Energy Agency, and the Coast Guard. Their objective is to enhance the detection and reporting of suspected cable damages. This initiative aims to facilitate quicker responses to potential threats posed by vessels in the vicinity of these critical infrastructures. Minister for Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin highlighted the importance of improved communication between governmental entities and private companies operating undersea fiber-optic cables in the Baltic Sea.

Bohlin reiterated that effective collaboration is crucial for a swift operational response following the identification of suspicious activities. He also tasked relevant authorities with compiling comprehensive data on the prevalence of cable incidents.

Professor Liwång is optimistic that these governmental measures could mitigate uncertainties surrounding the cable incidents. He advocates for a shift in focus from assigning blame to understanding the lessons that can be learned from these events. Enhanced monitoring of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea could lead to more careful operations among crews, subsequently reducing the risk of accidents.

Patrik Oksanen, a security policy commentator associated with the think tank Frivärld and the Swedish Defence University, recently published a book addressing Russian hybrid warfare, in which he discusses the cable incidents. Oksanen pointed out that while Sweden operates within a framework of legal security, proving intent in such cases is inherently challenging. He noted that Chinese authorities have hindered thorough investigations into the conduct of their flagged vessels, which complicates efforts to determine whether damage was intentional.

Oksanen believes that a majority of cable incidents may stem from deliberate acts of sabotage, especially considering their strategic context concerning the energy security of the Baltic region. He indicated that several of these incidents occurred just prior to the Baltic states' plans to disconnect entirely from the Russian electrical grid, accentuating the geopolitical implications of these events.

He also warned that it may take time before the true nature of these incidents is fully understood. The uncertainty surrounding such events is a core component of hybrid warfare strategies, paralleling the gradual acknowledgment of state-sponsored cyberattacks by nations like Russia and China.