Analysis: Putin's Strategies to Circumvent Military Draft Promises

The number of individuals called for military conscription in Russia has steadily risen over recent years. This spring, 160,000 men aged 18 to 30 are set to be summoned, which marks an increase of 10,000 from the previous year.

Recently, President Vladimir Putin announced plans to expand the Russian military to 1.5 million active-duty soldiers. According to military analysts, this increase in conscription is aimed at meeting the new target for a larger defense force. Additionally, there are gaps that need to be filled within Russia as the bulk of ground forces are currently deployed at the front lines.

Experts suggest a third reason for the rise in conscription is the potential for conscripts to transition into contract soldiers. A conscript can sign a contract on their first day of service, which could lead to their immediate deployment to combat zones.

Typically, military commanders receive directives on the number of contract soldiers they are expected to deliver. How they achieve this often depends on the mental and physical pressures applied to conscripts to encourage them to sign contracts. It is crucial to note that many of these individuals are merely 18 years old. However, they can refuse to enlist under a contract and continue their service as regular conscripts.

There have been reports of promises made of substantial financial incentives for conscripts to sign contracts, yet some young men have declined these offers. In certain instances, individuals who initially rejected contract agreements later discovered that their signatures had been forged on the documents.

Although President Putin has assured that conscripts would not be sent into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, this promise appears to have been largely upheld, albeit with some exceptions. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain how many of the contract soldiers currently engaged in military operations were originally conscripts.

In Russia, conscription periods occur in both spring and autumn. Last year, the maximum age for conscription was raised from 27 to 30 years. Regulations governing conscripts have become increasingly stringent since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Authorities now assert that an electronic registry exists, requiring all conscripts to report to draft offices. Those who fail to comply risk losing their driver's licenses and may be barred from traveling abroad or selling property.

The current call-up has just commenced and will continue until June. Many young men in Russia express fear regarding the possibility of being drafted into military service.