Efforts to end the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran appear to be approaching a significant milestone. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, both nations are preparing to finalize a peace memorandum, with the signing potentially taking place on Sunday in Geneva. This development follows a year of hostilities that began with joint Israeli-American military actions against Iran in June 2025 and escalated further in early 2026.

Progress in Negotiations

Negotiators from the US, Iran, and Qatar--the latter acting as mediator--have reported substantial progress on drafting a concise memorandum intended to halt military actions and initiate further diplomatic talks. The draft is reportedly near completion, though some details are still under discussion. Official statements from both sides indicate that while the main elements have been agreed upon, final approval is pending.

Key Provisions of the Memorandum

The proposed agreement is expected to declare an official end to military conflict between the US and Iran. Following the signing, both countries plan to enter two months of negotiations focusing on Iran's nuclear program. During this period, Iran would lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil shipments. In turn, the US would end its blockade of Iranian ports and permit Iranian oil exports to proceed without sanctions.

Each party has emphasized the inclusion of terms vital to its national interests. The US has insisted that Iran formally renounce the pursuit of nuclear weapons--a position Tehran has repeatedly stated in official declarations. Iranian negotiators, on the other hand, are seeking an end to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the release of Iranian financial assets frozen abroad.

Issues Not Addressed in the Memorandum

Certain contentious topics will remain unresolved in the initial agreement. While negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program will continue, discussions about the long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz and limitations on Iran's missile capabilities are postponed. The US opposes permanent Iranian control over the strait, and Iran has declined to negotiate on its missile program or support for groups such as Hezbollah.

Strategic and Political Motivations

US leadership is motivated to conclude an agreement swiftly, partly due to domestic political pressures linked to upcoming congressional elections. Rising fuel and consumer costs have become a significant concern among voters. The US administration is wary of perceived delays in negotiations and is intent on reaching a timely resolution. Additionally, recent military exchanges have demonstrated that Iran retains considerable missile capabilities, prompting US officials to reconsider the feasibility of achieving a decisive military outcome.

Economic factors also play a role, as US energy companies have reported declining oil reserves due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prolonged disruption could lead to further increases in global oil prices, adding urgency to the diplomatic process.

Iran's Objectives

The Iranian government's primary goals are to prevent future attacks from the US and Israel, strengthen its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz, and accelerate economic recovery. Iranian political and military leaders remain skeptical of US intentions and emphasize the importance of deterrence. Recent confrontations have shifted the regime's focus from survival to broader regional ambitions. Tehran has also demanded the withdrawal of US military forces from the region and proposed a minimum $300 billion reconstruction plan for post-conflict recovery.

Regional Implications

The anticipated agreement is likely to reshape the strategic balance in the Middle East. Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz and its willingness to use advanced military assets, such as missiles and drones, may influence the security landscape for neighboring countries, including Israel and Gulf Arab states. The US may face challenges to its regional credibility, while Israel, despite its military advantage, may need to reassess its approach toward Iran.

• Further negotiations on nuclear issues and regional security are expected to continue after the signing.
• The situation remains fluid, with both sides preparing for the possibility of setbacks or renewed tensions if talks stall.