Tax Cuts and Emissions Impact Government's Approval Ratings

The Tidö government has faced a challenging start, grappling with a sluggish NATO accession process and delays in energy support measures. Consequently, public approval has reflected this rocky beginning. However, recent evaluations indicate a slight improvement in perceptions, with satisfaction levels rising to 26 percent in a DN/Ipsos survey conducted in May. Despite this uptick, a larger segment of the population remains critical, with 45 percent expressing dissatisfaction.

Survey participants were also asked to identify what they perceive as the government's strengths and weaknesses. Criticism predominantly stems from left-leaning voters, who have expressed discontent regarding the tax policies, viewing them as disproportionately beneficial to affluent individuals and high earners. Concerns regarding crime policies have also been voiced.

According to an Ipsos opinion analyst, the dissatisfaction among these voters is rooted in a belief that the government emphasizes punitive measures over preventive strategies that could reduce youth recruitment into crime.

Additionally, environmental issues have arisen as a significant concern, with critics asserting that insufficient action is being taken to combat climate change, as evidenced by rising emission figures.

Conversely, those who approve of the government's performance cite its robust initiatives aimed at addressing crime. The administration has introduced a series of proposals and decisions designed to enforce stricter penalties and enhance police effectiveness.

Efforts to reduce immigration, a key focus of the Tidö government, have also drawn praise from supporters, alongside its ongoing military modernization program.

Among supporters of Tidö parties, a majority continues to endorse the government, although recent data suggests that approval ratings among this group have stagnated and are presently below earlier highs. Notably, voter satisfaction within the Sweden Democrats appears markedly lower than that of supporters from other Tidö parties. Meanwhile, the views of Liberal supporters remain divided regarding the government's actions.

Furthermore, a significant portion of the electorate believes that a government led by the Social Democrats could perform better, with 38 percent holding this view compared to 32 percent who disagree. The gap between these groups has narrowed since the beginning of the current term.

Supporters of the Green Party and the Left Party seem enthusiastic about the potential efficacy of a Social Democratic administration, whereas opinions among Center Party supporters are more mixed, according to the survey findings.

Those anticipating a shift toward a Social Democratic government primarily hope for a change in redistribution policies. However, fears also persist among some voters regarding potential increases in crime, tax hikes, heightened immigration, and expanded welfare benefits, particularly concerning the anticipated coalition with the Green Party and the Left Party.

Concerns about collaboration with the Sweden Democrats have been prevalent in discussions; now, similar apprehensions regarding the Green Party and the Left Party are emerging among Tidö supporters.

Survey Methodology:

• Ipsos conducted interviews with 1,396 eligible voters between May 6 and 18. A random sample yielded 754 responses via digital surveys distributed through email or post, while 75 respondents answered through SMS links. Additionally, 567 digital interviews were completed using a quota sample from a randomly recruited web panel.
• Participants were asked various questions regarding their views on the government's performance, including perceptions of a potential Social Democratic-led government.
• For detailed information about sampling methods, response rates, and dropout rates, please refer to ipsos.se or contact Ipsos opinion analyst Nicklas Källebring.