Rapid Glacier Melting in Tirol Due to Climate Change

A recent study conducted by a collaborative team of Austrian and British researchers has highlighted alarming projections regarding the rapid melting of glaciers in Tirol. The findings suggest that the region could see drastic reductions in glacier mass, with projections indicating that by the year 2100, only about three percent of the glacier volume recorded in 2017 will remain in the Ötztal and Stubai Alps, assuming average temperatures rise by a mere 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels--an outcome deemed highly unlikely given current trends.

Notably, the year 2024 marked the first instance since records began where global average temperatures exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold. Experts anticipate that such warming years will become increasingly common in the future. The current emission trajectory appears to lean towards a temperature increase of approximately three degrees Celsius, exacerbating the situation as warming effects are generally more pronounced on land, particularly in alpine regions.

Fabien Maussion, a climate expert and co-author of the study, emphasized that while the 1.5-degree target is theoretically still achievable, the timeframe to attain it is rapidly diminishing. The research, published in the journal The Cryosphere, focuses specifically on the glaciers in Tirol, particularly the Stubai and Ötztal Alps, which have a long history of glacial monitoring.

The study notes that between 2006 and 2017, the region experienced a significant loss of glacial area, with approximately 19 percent of glacier surface area vanishing and an even greater decline of about 23 percent in ice volume. During this period, five smaller glaciers completely disappeared. This ongoing trend poses serious threats not only to Tirol but also extends to larger parts of Austria.

Lea Hartl from the Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research at the Austrian Academy of Sciences remarked that smaller glaciers in the Eastern Alps face an increasingly precarious future. She noted that by the end of the century, little will remain of Austria's glaciers, particularly the smaller ones that are rapidly shrinking and likely to vanish within a few years.

In the event of a significant shift in climate policy towards achieving the 1.5-degree goal, there may still be hope for the larger glaciers located at higher elevations. However, it is uncertain whether any remnants would still qualify as glaciers, as current observations indicate they are disappearing quickly. What may remain could be better described as dead ice--ice remnants that lack movement and a replenishment zone.

For a visual representation of the ice loss at Hintereisferner, a dedicated animation is available online.