Former Bosnia Envoy Warns Against Concessions to Dodik

Valentin Inzko, the former High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, has expressed that while immediate war threats in the Balkan nation are absent, caution is necessary against any form of appeasement towards the secessionist leader Milorad Dodik. He emphasized that the international community possesses various tools to address tensions, notably the demilitarized district of Brcko, which divides the Republika Srpska into two regions. Inzko suggests that international forces could play a pivotal role there.

A significant presence of international troops in the Brcko district could effectively disrupt operations in the western section of the Republika Srpska, including its capital, Banja Luka, as it would sever direct land connections to Serbia. To mitigate any potential for conflict, Inzko advocates for a stronger deployment of EUFOR soldiers throughout the country. He noted that post-war Bosnia once hosted 60,000 troops, a number far beyond what is feasible today, but he stressed the need for a visible and robust international presence.

Currently, around 1,000 EUFOR soldiers are stationed in Bosnia, with Austria contributing the largest contingent of 227 troops. Inzko firmly stated that a policy of appeasement towards Dodik should be avoided at all costs, recalling past mistakes where concessions were made to the Bosnian Serb leader. He characterized Dodik as thriving on chaos and conflict, warning that appeasing those intent on destabilizing the state could have severe repercussions.

Inzko, who served as the High Representative from 2009 to 2021, recalled his early confrontations with Dodik, including a barrage of postcards demanding his removal. He noted that Dodik, currently facing an international arrest warrant, has limited maneuverability. Comparisons have been drawn between Dodik and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, with U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley suggesting that Dodik has sought refuge in Moscow.

Despite a recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Inzko indicated uncertainty regarding Moscow's support for the Bosnian Serbs, stating that the Balkan region is not currently a priority for Russia, although it remains under close observation.

Inzko also pointed to Dodik's strained relations with the United States, citing the discrepancy between Dodik's pro-Trump displays and the firm reaffirmation of Bosnia's territorial integrity by U.S. officials, including Republican senators.

Assessing the security situation, Inzko believes that an armed conflict is unlikely, although he acknowledges the potential for isolated incidents. The atmosphere of fear and uncertainty among Bosnians has intensified, with many expressing concerns about their safety.

Regarding Austria's stance, Inzko noted the country's cautious approach, contingent on United Nations Security Council approval for troop deployments. He expressed gratitude for the new Austrian Foreign Minister's clear commitment to Bosnia's unity and rule of law, emphasizing that there can be no neutrality regarding the country's division.

Inzko cautioned against the notion that rapid EU accession could stabilize Bosnia politically, suggesting that while the populace deserves such recognition, not all politicians are worthy of it. He argued that a significant international military presence is essential to prevent the resurgence of conflict, criticizing the withdrawal of international judges and prosecutors as a severe miscalculation.

Reflecting on his tenure, Inzko expressed pride in bolstering state institutions and implementing laws against genocide denial, particularly after the convictions of key war criminals. He described a deeply personal moment that led to his decision to enact legislation aimed at recognizing the victims of the Srebrenica genocide. Inzko remains resolute that strong international support for the High Representative is crucial for maintaining peace and stability in the region.