Canada Heads to Polls Amidst Rising Voter Engagement

As Canada prepares for its 45th federal election, voter turnout is anticipated to exceed the usual participation rates, influenced significantly by recent global events. Historically, about two-thirds of eligible voters in Canada cast their ballots in national elections. However, this year, there is already a noticeable increase in engagement; approximately 7.3 million Canadians participated in advance voting, representing a 25% increase compared to the previous election in 2021.

The surge in voter interest is largely attributed to the political climate shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, including tariffs on Canadian goods and provocative comments regarding Canada's sovereignty. These actions have drawn considerable international attention and galvanized the Canadian electorate, reflected in the high viewership of televised debates leading up to the election.

The impact of a tragic mass shooting on Saturday night, which resulted in at least eleven fatalities and over twenty injuries, casts uncertainty over the election's atmosphere. In the aftermath, all political parties temporarily suspended their campaigns, adopting a more subdued approach during the final stretch of the election cycle. Neither Prime Minister Marc Carney nor Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly addressed the incident in a political context.

• Election Date: Canada will hold its federal election on Monday, increasing the House of Commons from 338 to 343 members. The Senate, comprising 105 members, is appointed by the Governor General on the advice of the Prime Minister.
• Voting Options: Voters can choose to mail their ballots or participate in advance voting, which is available for a limited period leading up to Election Day. Votes are counted manually by election officials in pairs, with no plans to introduce automated systems or digital voting.
• Eligible Voters: Over 28.5 million Canadians are eligible to vote, defined as citizens aged 18 and older. Voter turnout has varied in recent decades, ranging from a high of 79.4% in 1958 to lows of 58.8% in 2008 and 68.3% in 2015.
• Time Zones: Canada spans six time zones, with the last polling stations closing in Yukon and British Columbia at 4:30 AM on Tuesday, Swedish time.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation earlier this year amid declining approval ratings, raising concerns about his Liberal Party's potential losses. However, recent developments in the political landscape have shifted public sentiment in favor of Carney's leadership. Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, hopes that votes will be siphoned away from the Liberals by the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Just a few months ago, the Conservative Party held a significant lead of over 20%. However, recent polls indicate that the Liberal Party is now at 42.8% support, surpassing the Conservatives by 3.6 percentage points, a notable shift from the earlier gap of nearly 7 points. Data compiled by the public broadcaster CBC suggests a 70% likelihood that the Liberal Party will secure a majority, with a 19% chance of forming a minority government.