India Faces Significant Risk from Chikungunya, New Research Indicates
Recent research conducted by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has unveiled that India may be the country most affected by chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral infection. The comprehensive mapping study predicts that approximately 5.1 million individuals in India could be at risk of contracting the virus annually, contributing to a global estimate of 14.4 million people at risk.
The findings suggest that the number of individuals at risk could escalate to 34.9 million worldwide, with 12.1 million in India alone, particularly as chikungunya is likely to spread to previously unrecorded regions. The analysis identifies India, Brazil, and Indonesia as the top three nations facing substantial long-term impacts, with India and Brazil accounting for nearly half of the global burden on health systems and populations.
Chronic health issues arising from chikungunya are expected to be the most significant concern, given that around 50% of those infected may experience long-term disabilities. The researchers emphasize that their analysis provides critical insights for public health officials striving to manage and mitigate chikungunya outbreaks.
This study, which appeared in BMJ Global Health, utilized advanced infectious disease modeling to project potential future transmission of chikungunya. The researchers mapped regions likely to experience future outbreaks, allowing for better preparedness and targeted vaccine programs.
Chikungunya, which has emerged as a public health concern in over 114 countries since 2004, is transmitted primarily by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The infection causes severe joint pain and high fever, with many patients suffering from debilitating long-term effects. Currently, there are no specific antiviral treatments for chikungunya, although two vaccines have been approved in certain countries.
The study is groundbreaking as it employs machine learning techniques to integrate existing data on chikungunya infections with various influencing factors. These factors include the likelihood of mosquito presence, suitable temperatures for viral transmission, annual rainfall patterns, environmental suitability for the virus, and national GDP.
While previous estimates of chikungunya's burden relied on surveillance data, this model aims to provide a more accurate prediction of infection rates. On average, it is estimated that 1.2% to 1.3% of those at risk may contract chikungunya each year, which is lower than the infection rate for dengue fever but still concerning in specific regions.
The researchers identified that chronic illness accounts for 54% of the chikungunya burden, predominantly affecting individuals aged 40 to 60. Children under ten and adults over eighty are more susceptible to acute illness. The findings underscore the importance of proactive measures to prevent the spread of chikungunya, as existing treatments focus solely on supportive care.
The researchers hope their findings will inform public health strategies globally, aiding organizations like the WHO in identifying regions at risk and prioritizing vaccination efforts in areas overlooked by conventional surveillance.