Global Warming Exceeds 1.5-Degree Target as Emissions Rise, Yet Positive Developments Emerge
The anticipated reversal in global carbon dioxide emissions has not materialized, according to a comprehensive report covering 2025, indicating that worldwide greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. Data shows that CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 1.1 percent compared to the previous year, reaching a new high of 38.1 billion tonnes. This ongoing trend suggests that the remaining carbon budget necessary to adhere to the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, could be depleted before 2030.
Analysis from an international research consortium reveals that all major fossil fuels contributed to this growth: coal emissions rose by 0.8 percent, oil by 1.0 percent, and natural gas by 1.3 percent. Regionally, emissions are expected to increase by 1.9 percent in the United States, 1.4 percent in India, and 0.4 percent each in China and the European Union. These findings highlight the persistent challenge of curbing carbon emissions on a global scale, despite international agreements and targets.
The report further notes that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is anticipated to reach 425.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, surpassing the previous record of 423.9 ppm. This persistent rise in atmospheric CO2 levels underscores the scale of the challenge in limiting global temperature increases.
Amid these challenges, the report identifies several encouraging trends. Notably, 35 countries have successfully reduced their emissions while achieving economic growth between 2015 and 2024, doubling the number compared to a decade earlier. This group includes numerous European nations as well as Australia, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Although these achievements demonstrate that emission reductions can be compatible with economic expansion, they are not yet sufficient to counterbalance the increasing global energy demand.
Another area of progress is in land use management, particularly in curbing deforestation rates. Environmental policy measures have resulted in a significant reduction in forest loss, with the Amazon region experiencing its lowest deforestation rates since 2014. However, extreme events such as widespread wildfires in 2024 highlight the ongoing vulnerability of ecosystems should global warming remain unchecked.
Conversely, the capacity of natural carbon sinks--such as forests and oceans--to absorb atmospheric CO2 is declining. Since 1960, this decrease in absorption efficiency has contributed to the sustained increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. The capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to absorb carbon fell by 25 percent between 2015 and 2024, while oceanic absorption declined by 7.9 percent, primarily due to the impacts of climate change.
Looking ahead, projections from the International Energy Agency indicate that the demand for oil and gas may continue to grow through 2050, the year targeted for achieving net-zero emissions globally. Under current policy environments, oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, a 13 percent increase compared to 2024. The global market for liquefied natural gas is also expected to nearly double by 2050. These projections suggest that without significant policy shifts, fossil fuel use will remain a substantial barrier to meeting climate targets.
However, scenarios outlined by the International Energy Agency indicate that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 remains technically feasible. Should this target be met, global temperature increases could eventually fall back below the 1.5-degree threshold, offering hope for future climate stabilization.
The findings underscore the urgent need for accelerated emissions reduction, enhanced policy measures, and technological innovation to address both the causes and effects of climate change. While some nations and sectors have demonstrated the possibility of decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions, global efforts must intensify to ensure a sustainable and stable climate future.