The Swedish government is set to allocate over SEK 1 trillion for the renovation and expansion of the nation's road and railway infrastructure through 2037. As part of this initiative, the Swedish Transport Administration has provided an assessment to the government detailing the potential impact of these investments.

According to the Transport Administration's findings, the expanded financial scope of the infrastructure plan enables the execution of more projects across both urban and rural areas, benefiting the economy, workforce mobility, and national defense. However, the report also draws attention to significant challenges, particularly regarding the rail network's capacity constraints on some of Sweden's most critical routes.

Roads Versus Railways: Economic Impact

The evaluation indicates that road infrastructure accounts for a substantial share of societal benefits, with 43 percent of the total, despite only constituting 17 percent of planned infrastructure spending through 2037. This results in a positive net present value for road investments. In contrast, railway projects, while offering high accessibility gains, are associated with a negative net present value due to the high costs of several major undertakings, such as new railways between Gothenburg and Borås, Hässleholm and Lund, four-track expansion from Stockholm to Uppsala, the Norrbotniabanan between Skellefteå and Luleå, and the Sydostlänken.

The government has previously emphasized the historic scale of the new infrastructure plan, yet the Transport Administration notes that many urgent needs remain unaddressed. The report suggests that a further increase in the budget for new construction could deliver clear economic benefits, as additional projects would have a strong positive impact on society.

Capacity Challenges on Key Rail Routes

Critical issues are identified on the western and southern main railway lines, which serve trains between Stockholm and Gothenburg, as well as Stockholm and Malmö. Operators of passenger and freight trains are eager to increase service frequency on these heavily trafficked routes. However, due to high levels of capacity utilization, it is challenging to accommodate additional trains under current infrastructure conditions.

With the decision to halt the development of new main lines in late 2022--redirecting funds towards upgrading existing railways--the need to address increased demand falls on current infrastructure. The Transport Administration warns that planned improvements on the southern main line, such as the Ostlänken and the Hässleholm-Lund section, will not fully meet future demand, leaving capacity shortages unresolved.

Stockholm Central Station: Limited Expansion Potential

Stockholm Central Station, a pivotal hub for national rail traffic, is particularly constrained. The report cites limited platform capacity, especially for 400-meter-long trains, and indicates that the station can only support a 10-15 percent increase in train frequency during peak hours and up to 25 percent more passenger movement. However, these improvements would only address half the projected growth in demand by 2045, according to baseline forecasts.

To cope with rising demand, the Transport Administration recommends constructing new double tracks and passing tracks along approximately 350 kilometers of key rail corridors. Regional authorities have long advocated for expanding from two to four tracks between Gothenburg and Alingsås, a move considered essential for accommodating increased passenger and freight volumes.

Infrastructure Needs Remain Unmet

The Transport Administration's assessment concludes that, without expanded investment in new main rail lines, existing routes will require significant upgrades to serve the projected growth in traffic. The report underlines that the current and planned works on the southern and western main lines are insufficient to prevent capacity bottlenecks in the coming decades.

The findings underscore the urgency for further strategic infrastructure investments to ensure that Sweden's transportation network can meet future mobility and economic demands, particularly in and around major urban centers like Stockholm.