Experts Warn of a New AIDS Crisis Due to Funding Cuts

Recent modeling by international experts indicates a potential resurgence of the AIDS crisis influenced by significant reductions in funding. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set an ambitious goal to end the AIDS pandemic by 2030. However, a drastic curtailment of resources by the United States and other donor nations could lead to an alarming increase of up to 11 million new HIV infections and nearly 3 million additional deaths by the same year.

This alarming prediction was published in the medical journal Lancet HIV on March 27, 2025. The study highlights that since 2015, international donors have contributed approximately 40% of the necessary funding for HIV/AIDS initiatives in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The financial support from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands constitutes over 90% of international funding efforts.

Recently, however, many of these countries have announced plans to implement significant cuts to their development aid budgets. These reductions could lead to a projected 24% decrease in global financing for HIV/AIDS initiatives by 2026. The critical role of the United States is underscored by the recent suspension of aid through the USAID program, which accounts for nearly 73% of global development assistance.

Experts warn that if the proposed cuts are enacted, the ramifications could be severe, particularly for vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Marginalized groups, including drug users, sex workers, and men who have sex with men, are at a heightened risk of HIV infection and are expected to be the most adversely affected.

Development assistance programs, like the previous U.S. administration's PEPFAR initiative, have been pivotal in providing treatment and preventive services in the hardest-hit regions. These programs not only offer antiretroviral therapies (ART) but also bolster healthcare systems by funding clinics and essential lab services.

Experts predict that interruptions in testing and treatment programs could lead to a spike in new infections, notably where significant progress had previously been made, such as in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The co-leader of the study, Rowan Martin-Hughes from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, Australia, emphasized that substantial impacts could occur in areas that have seen considerable advancements in HIV treatment and prevention since 2010.

From 2010 to 2023, countries receiving PEPFAR support experienced an average annual decline of 8.3% in new infections and a 10.3% reduction in HIV-related deaths. If this trend continues, many countries could meet global targets for eliminating HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by approximately 2036. However, should development aid be significantly cut or PEPFAR financing halted without adequate alternatives, the rates of new infections and deaths could revert to levels not seen since 2010, potentially erasing two decades of progress.

In 2023, approximately 40 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS, with around 630,000 fatalities attributed to the disease. Despite ongoing efforts, the number of new infections reported in the 2024 Global AIDS Report was 1.3 million, indicating that targets set for 2030 are still far from being achieved. The global community faces a critical juncture in the fight against HIV/AIDS, and the choices made by donor nations will significantly impact future outcomes.